July 20, 2020
Trends in OEM Delivery Rates
by Ryan Cross
The COVID-19 pandemic has forced aircraft manufacturers to slash production rates and pause most deliveries. As a comparison, mba’s data reveals how the pace of deliveries dipped during the global financial crisis of 2007-08. During the recession, Boeing made significant cuts to production, reaching a nadir in Q4 2008 when it delivered just 48 aircraft. Meanwhile, Airbus delivered through the crisis.
Due to the unprecedented decrease in global passenger traffic, numerous airlines have made plans to defer or cancel outright their deliveries scheduled for the coming months. While the aviation industry gradually recovers from the ongoing recession, two factors may help the duopoly to rise out of the delivery trough. For Airbus, deliveries may rise slightly towards the end of this year as supplier issues get resolved post crisis. Meanwhile, Boeing eagerly awaits the recertification of its 737 MAX, which will likely cause a delivery surge in the near term as the company clears the backlog of over 400 undelivered aircraft. Despite this, deliveries for this year, and likely next, will fall short of expectations, putting pressure on OEM’s.
